March 24, 2021
John A. Swegle, NSRI Senior Policy Consultant
Christopher Yeaw, NSRI Research Director for Nuclear Programs

In this paper, we reconsider China’s early production of weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) in the 801 Reactor at the 404 Plant in Gansu Province (or the 404 Plant reactor) and the 821 Plant reactor in Sichuan Province. Both are graphite-moderated, light-water-cooled production reactors that began operation in late 1966 and late 1973, respectively, and both have been shut down for decades (with the date of termination at issue between different assessments).

Here, we review two existing estimates of WGPu production with widely varying methodologies and results: Zhang’s 2017 estimate and Esin and Anichkina’s 2013 estimate. In addition, we provide our own estimate based largely on the information in Zhang’s estimate, but with a reconsideration of Zhang’s assumptions about the pace of production for 1980 and beyond and on his assumption about the closure date of the 821 Plant reactor.

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This paper relates closely to research the authors conducted for NSRI, but the conclusions in this report reflect the authors’ personal views. The data sources supporting this paper are all unclassified and publicly available.

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