Characterized by tumultuous real-world events, a steady stream of new and evolved U.S. national security strategies and significant scientific disruptions, the timeframe of this report from July 1, 2022, through June 30, 2024, continued to demonstrate the continually advancing nature of deterrence, defense and homeland security. This period also highlighted intense challenges and intriguing opportunities spurred forward by leadership priorities around the world and progressing technologies.
With an understanding of the demands and urgencies for tailored solutions, thought leadership, rapid response and decision-making tools, the National Strategic Research Institute (NSRI) at the University of Nebraska delivered important research, development, testing, evaluation and training to partners across the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and U.S. Government (USG) while stretching its capacity to discover new solutions and anticipate emerging needs.
As the DOD-designated University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) of U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) and the University of Nebraska System (NU), NSRI is required to maintain essential research and engineering capabilities for the federal government. Its core competencies address the full threat spectrum — chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) — and its research focus areas prioritize deterrence, mitigation and response.
The reporting period opened with Russia entering Ukraine, leading many across the national security landscape to ask: “What would push Russian President Vladimir Putin into crossing the nuclear threshold?” While it is impossible to know, NSRI researchers have grappled with this question daily.
“We have learned through the crisis in Ukraine and our ongoing research that Putin will respect nothing short of strength. And a corollary would be that Chinese President Xi Jinping likely is in the same camp — only unambiguous strength will deter,” said Dr. Christopher Yeaw, NSRI associate executive director for strategic deterrence and nuclear programs. “The U.S. may need to rethink whether we need additional future theater nuclear capabilities to demonstrate additional strength in deterring risk-acceptant, nuclear-armed, revisionist rivals.”
These questions rest on the minds of many as the world navigates a short era containing many geopolitical structural changes. Russian submarines, potentially armed with live nuclear weapons, sailed just off the coast of Florida; China’s planned force additions are poised to put the U.S. in third place globally in terms of operationally deployed nuclear weapons; a historic mutual defense treaty between Russia and North Korea; and the Hamas-led attack on Israel and ensuing war.
“Even though 9/11 changed everything and served as a focal point for government-wide counterterrorism efforts, I think we’d have to go back to the end of the Cold War to find a time of such truly global, multifaceted, rapid change,” Dr. Yeaw said.
Global tactical conflicts were not the only defense disruptions occurring during these two years. In contrast to the immediate, physical, violent nature of war, the world was still reflecting critically on lessons learned through the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to prepare for potential future biological threats.
NU and NSRI continued to lead the way in several efforts related to positioning the country to successfully identify, respond to and mitigate such threats. For example, NSRI Fellows tested compounds for a prophylactic to treat acute radiation syndrome, developed prototypes for a ruggedized powered air-purifying respirator and began development of a digital twin of the human immune system. Projects such as an infectious aerosol risk study led by NSRI scientists on board U.S. Navy Ship Mercy will play a critical role in informing DOD protection of medical staff and patients from aerosolized pathogens going forward.
“The COVID-19 pandemic revealed critical gaps in our national preparedness for biological threats,” said Marty Sikes, NSRI associate executive director for chemical and biological defense programs. “NSRI and the University of Nebraska have taken these hard-learned lessons and transformed them into actionable research. Our work on the U.S. Navy Ship Mercy, for instance, demonstrates our commitment to protecting military personnel and medical staff from future airborne pathogens. By bridging the gap between civilian and military health security, we’re forging a more resilient defense infrastructure for the challenges that lie ahead.”
It’s not far from contemplation of biological pandemic threats to a broader view of scientific development. Disruptions during this timeframe included critical scientific breakthroughs, such as the engineering physics milestone of nuclear fusion and quantum leaps in artificial intelligence (AI).
“From a national security perspective, the fusion breakthrough advances a deep understanding of the phenomena occurring in the cores of nuclear weapons, underscoring to friend and foe alike that the foundations of U.S. nuclear deterrence are second to none,” Dr. Yeaw said.
As AI technology exploded into public view, it presented national security and defense leaders with a dual-edged challenge: harnessing its immense potential to enhance capabilities while simultaneously guarding against its misuse by adversaries. This necessitates continuous adaptation of strategies, policies and ethical frameworks to ensure responsible development and deployment, all while staying ahead in an increasingly AI-driven global security landscape.
“Emerging technologies have changed the threat landscape and make engineered threats more feasible,” said Dr. Neal Woollen, NSRI associate executive director for countering weapons of mass destruction allied programs. “We need a new generation of solutions that are more flexible and agile to be ready for the unexpected.”
The convergence of geopolitical shifts, evolving threats and emerging technologies demands a proactive approach to strategy formulation and execution. NSRI is assisting with this aspect of defense, as well, through projects that further strategic analysis and planning, helping commanders find ways to harness innovation and achieve new levels of adaptability for resilient future forces.
U.S. Air Force General Anthony Cotton relieved U.S. Navy Admiral Charles Richard as commander of USSTRATCOM during a ceremony at Offutt Air Force Base on December 9, 2022. As USSTRATCOM’s UARC, NSRI wasted no time identifying how it could support the new commander’s vision — from strategic deterrence research to joint electromagnetic spectrum operational tools to leveraging advanced database technology for operational practice and planning and more.
Several strategies and reports related to USSTRATCOM‘s mission space were published in this time frame, including the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission Report. Produced by a bipartisan Congressional Commission, the report emphasized an urgent need for an upgrade of nuclear capabilities: “The vision of a world without nuclear weapons, aspirational even in 2009, is more improbable now than ever.”
The report underscored the importance of NSRI’s wargaming efforts with the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Leveraging a $25 million indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity contract established by NNSA in 2021, NSRI executed four wargames with NNSA leaders to help increase their resilience and adaptability for the nuclear weapons complex. As declared in the commission’s report, augmentations to the theater nuclear force are imminent and NSRI is helping the NNSA and the broader defense community think through the strategies, impacts and consequences.
Several national strategies influenced NSRI’s chemical and biological defense efforts, particularly the 2022 National Defense Strategy, the 2022 National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan and the 2023 Biodefense Posture Review. Key takeaways include but are not limited to: emphasis on early warning and understanding of biological threats, the pivot to agnostic threat detection, increased focus on biosafety and biosecurity and renewed investments in biosurveillance.
In November 2022 U.S. President Joe Biden published National Security Memorandum 16 (NSM-16) on Strengthening the Security and Resilience of U.S. Food and Agriculture. NSM-16 punctuated the importance of NSRI’s new food, agriculture and environment security focus area, developed in partnership with the University of Nebraska–Lincoln Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.
The intent of the focus area is to help America’s leaders determine how to best protect the Nation’s food supply chains, agricultural systems and the environment from attack, adulteration and disease. Several strategic planning events within NU and with government partners including the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation have identified priorities for this area, many of which were guided in part by NSM-16.
The diverse array of national strategies the institute examined provided invaluable insights, shaping NSRI’s approach to complex global challenges. By synthesizing these lessons, NSRI enhanced its capabilities and positioned itself to offer more comprehensive and nuanced solutions to its partners in government and academia.
Boasting more than 525 years of combined service and ongoing support to national security missions, the NSRI leadership team employs a deep understanding of and rich expertise for CBRNE deterrence, mitigation and response. Passionate, talented scientific staff of the institute collaborate across DOD and USG agencies and create opportunities for those agencies to engage with NU researchers to bring forward resources, capacity and capabilities the Nation needs to execute strategies and prepare for future threats.
The facilities, technologies and 27 projects featured throughout this report demonstrate NSRI’s and NU’s ongoing commitment to USSTRATCOM and its mission partners.
