Strategic Deterrence & Nuclear Programs

NSRI played an important role throughout the twoyear reporting period, leading high-level efforts to understand the dynamic strategic and nuclear global landscape. With revolutionary changes in the Chinese nuclear force and repeated threats of nuclear escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the tripolar nuclear rivalry that the U.S. finds itself within calls for rebalancing in its nuclear posture.

NSRI actively assists government and defense leaders in exploring the range of possible future deterrence requirements and the art of the possible to meet those requirements. In this period, NSRI developed and delivered extensive strategic escalation wargames and warhead design workshops for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) that will continue into 2025.

In July 2023, USSTRATCOM stood up the Joint Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) Operations Center (JEC). With several EMS subject matter experts on staff, NSRI was ready to investigate technical issues for EMS dominance. In January 2024, the institute launched research and development of innovative enabling technologies and support for coordinated adaptations to tactics, techniques and procedures in EMS operations. The institute delivered the initial results of this work and is seeking to expand its footprint in this vital mission by collaborating across the DOD.

Dr. Christopher Yeaw (far right on stage), NSRI associate executive
                            director, introduces a discussion panel entitled “Strategies
                            for deterring two nuclear-armed peer competitors” at the
                            USSTRATCOM Deterrence Symposium in July 2022, Omaha,
                            Nebraska. U.S. Air Force photo by TSgt. Taylor Drzazgowski.
Dr. Christopher Yeaw (far right on stage), NSRI associate executive director, introduces a discussion panel entitled “Strategies for deterring two nuclear-armed peer competitors” at the USSTRATCOM Deterrence Symposium in July 2022, Omaha, Nebraska. U.S. Air Force photo by TSgt. Taylor Drzazgowski.

Looking ahead, NSRI is supporting a Defense Threat Reduction Agency initiative to deliberate on the fundamental assurance requirements of Allies and extended deterrence. NSRI personnel will lead thought leaders and policy experts from Australia, Japan and South Korea through a strategic escalation wargame and workshop in early 2025. They will capture, analyze and synthesize these Allied perspectives regarding what is needed to assure them and to extend deterrence to U.S. Indo-Pacific Allies and partners.

In anticipation of future needs, NSRI is pursuing research and analysis for countering Russian and Chinese military concepts that include homeland nuclear strikes against the U.S.; conceiving and prototyping innovative nuclear sensors deployable nationwide; and considering various theater nuclear systems and operational concepts for the future U.S. nuclear deterrent.

Capabilities

  • Weapons policy analysis: foreign threats, arms control, conceptual weapon design, strategic materials production
  • Strategic conflict deterrence and escalation dynamics: tabletop exercises, wargames, model development, decision support tools
  • Consequence management: nuclear detection and forensics, hazard modeling, disaster mitigation research
  • Support technologies: future nuclear command, control and communications technology exploration, advanced concepts and architecture, materials research, advanced manufacturing, nuclear certification

Featured Deliverables from Report Period