Modeling nuclear escalation dynamics among world powers is an evolving and complex challenge.
This NSRI IRAD project, funded in August 2021, seeks to use novel mathematical transformation and projection methods to create interactive graphics that Department of Defense decision makers can use to rapidly and accurately assess low-intensity, steady to high-intensity, highly dynamic nuclear deployment actions.
Unlike traditional approaches, the proposed model includes multi-cue, multi-choice decision-making within multiagent competing dynamics.
"The importance of this research has become more and more apparent since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Dr. Hui said. "At this point, the nuclear dynamics among world superpowers is at their highest point since the Cold War. Having a way to predict and better understand the escalation dynamics of superpowers is a necessity for the DOD."
Research Team
- Principal Investigator: Qing Hui, NSRI fellow and associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln
- Josh Allen, graduate research assistant in electrical and computer engineering at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Milestones (as of May 2022)
- Modeled the dynamic correlation between different factors in escalation
- Modeled human behavior involved in decision-making dynamics on different factors during escalation
- Paper accepted for presentation in June 2022
Next Steps
The duo will use numerical verification and simulation to model the intertwined dynamics using tensor networks. They will also develop a topological visualization using energy-like contours to depict human-readable results.
